Climate change is both predictable and unpredictable. We don't need certainty to know it's a crisis

Salon - May 1st, 2025
Open on Salon

The article discusses the challenges of addressing climate change due to its inherent unpredictability. Unlike threats with clear deadlines, such as Y2K, climate change presents a complex problem where the exact forms of disasters cannot be predicted, making it difficult to spur immediate action. The narrative highlights how human nature tends to respond more effectively to certain threats, creating a barrier to addressing the climate crisis despite extensive scientific consensus on its risks and impacts.

The story emphasizes the importance of embracing uncertainty as a catalyst for action rather than a hindrance. By accepting the unpredictability of climate change, society can focus on proactive measures to mitigate risks. The piece also critiques the use of uncertainty by climate change deniers to delay action, suggesting that leveraging uncertainty as a tool for rapid decarbonization could drive significant progress. The article concludes by urging for a shift in perspective to mobilize efforts towards saving the planet.

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RATING

6.8
Fair Story
Consider it well-founded

The article effectively communicates the urgency of addressing climate change despite uncertainties, supported by scientific consensus. It is timely and of significant public interest, contributing to ongoing discussions about environmental policy and action. However, the piece could benefit from more explicit sourcing and a balanced exploration of opposing views to enhance its credibility and authority. While it is engaging and generally clear, providing more detailed explanations of complex concepts and including actionable insights could improve its impact and reader engagement. Overall, the article is a valuable contribution to climate discourse but has room for improvement in several dimensions.

RATING DETAILS

8
Accuracy

The article presents a generally accurate portrayal of climate change issues, supported by scientific consensus. It correctly states that there is broad agreement among scientists about human-induced climate change and its worsening effects, which aligns with authoritative sources like NASA and the IPCC. The article's claim about the unpredictability of specific climate events, while accurate, could benefit from more precise language regarding the predictability of trends versus specific events. Additionally, the economic analysis of the social cost of carbon, cited as being in the high $200s per ton, reflects a plausible range but lacks specific sourcing or context, which slightly undermines its precision. Overall, the article is truthful, but some claims, particularly those involving specific figures, would benefit from additional sourcing.

7
Balance

The article predominantly presents the perspective that uncertainty in climate change should not delay action, reflecting a common scientific viewpoint. While it mentions climate deniers and their arguments, it does not delve deeply into their perspectives or provide a balanced exploration of opposing views. This could lead to an impression of bias towards the urgency of addressing climate change without fully exploring the counterarguments. The article effectively highlights the challenges posed by uncertainty but could improve balance by including more about the rationale behind differing viewpoints.

8
Clarity

The article is generally well-written, with a clear and engaging narrative that effectively communicates the urgency of climate action despite uncertainties. The use of analogies, such as the Y2K comparison, aids in understanding complex issues. However, the article could improve clarity by providing more detailed explanations of certain terms and concepts, such as the 'social cost of carbon,' to ensure all readers can fully grasp the arguments presented.

6
Source quality

The article references general scientific consensus and indirectly alludes to the IPCC, but it lacks direct citations or quotes from specific studies or experts. This absence of explicit sourcing diminishes the article's authority and reliability. While the author, Gernot Wagner, is a credible figure in climate economics, the piece would benefit from a broader range of authoritative sources to substantiate its claims and enhance its credibility.

5
Transparency

The article does not provide detailed explanations of the methodologies or data sources behind its claims, such as the economic cost of carbon emissions. This lack of transparency makes it difficult for readers to assess the basis of these claims or understand the potential biases influencing the article. While the author's affiliation is noted, more context about the data and methodologies used would enhance transparency and allow readers to better evaluate the article's impartiality.

Sources

  1. https://thebulletin.org/premium/2025-03/is-scientific-reticence-hindering-climate-understanding/
  2. https://skepticalscience.com/new_research_2025_17.html
  3. https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/scientific-consensus/
  4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_in_climate_change
  5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change