Florida’s COVID-era housing boom is over — biggest decline in prices in more than a decade

New York Post - May 6th, 2025

Home prices in Florida have experienced their largest decline in over a decade, with the median price dropping 1.7% in March compared to the previous year, according to data from Redfin. The decrease is attributed to the waning pandemic-era migration to Florida, coupled with persistently high mortgage rates that are making housing purchases less affordable. Furthermore, cities like Jacksonville have seen even steeper declines, with a 3.8% drop in median sales prices. The market's distress is exacerbated by a slow pace in condo sales, influenced by new upkeep requirements following the Surfside collapse. Consequently, Florida's housing inventory is reaching unprecedented levels, and the trend is reflected in low percentages of homes sold above listing prices in areas like West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami.

While some experts view the current trends as a normalization of the market, others, like real estate analyst Nick Gerli, caution about a more extended downturn. Gerli suggests that Florida might be entering a prolonged phase of reduced in-migration unless housing prices decline significantly. Despite the broader state cooling off, Palm Beach's real estate market is bucking the trend, with a notable surge in luxury home sales driven partly by post-election dynamics. This divergence highlights the varied impacts within the state's real estate landscape, underscoring the complexity of Florida's housing market shifts.

Redfin Real Estate Trends Nick Gerli Surfside Condo Collapse Florida Housing Market Sheharyar Bokhari Palm Beach Real Estate

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RATING

7.6

Fair Story

Consider it well-founded

The article provides a comprehensive and largely accurate overview of the current trends in Florida's real estate market. It effectively uses data from reputable sources and includes expert opinions to support its claims. The article is timely and addresses issues of significant public interest, such as housing affordability and migration trends. While it presents a balanced view, it could benefit from including more perspectives that see current trends as part of a healthy market correction. The article is well-written and accessible, though it could improve engagement by incorporating visual elements and inviting reader interaction. Overall, the article is a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of Florida's housing market.

Accuracy

The article is largely accurate, with most of its claims supported by external data sources. It accurately reports a 1.7% decline in Florida home prices, which aligns with broader market trends. Additionally, the claim about the median condo price decline is consistent with market observations. However, some claims, such as the "record high inventory," lack direct confirmation. The article effectively uses data from reputable sources like Redfin and Bloomberg, adding credibility to its assertions. However, minor discrepancies in specific metro-level data, such as Jacksonville's decline, suggest a need for more granular data to ensure precision.

Balance

The article presents a balanced view by including multiple perspectives on the Florida real estate market. It discusses both the decline in home prices and the contrasting rise in the Palm Beach luxury market. However, it leans slightly towards a negative outlook, emphasizing the downturn and potential risks more than the positive aspects. While it mentions the "normalization" perspective, it gives more weight to analysts predicting a downturn. Including more voices that see the current trends as part of a healthy market correction could have improved balance.

Clarity

The article is well-structured and uses clear, concise language. It logically presents the decline in home prices, followed by expert opinions and contrasting data from different regions. The use of specific data points and expert quotes aids in comprehension. However, the introduction of terms like "Trump bump" without sufficient explanation might confuse readers unfamiliar with the context. Overall, the article maintains a neutral tone and effectively communicates complex real estate trends.

Source quality

The article relies on credible sources such as Redfin, Bloomberg, and Douglas Elliman, which are well-regarded in the real estate industry. These sources provide authoritative data and expert opinions, enhancing the article's reliability. The inclusion of a quote from a Redfin economist adds depth and expert insight. However, the mention of Nick Gerli's warnings lacks direct attribution to his statements, which could affect the perceived reliability of that particular claim.

Transparency

The article is transparent in citing its sources, such as Redfin and Bloomberg, for specific data points. It provides context for the claims made, such as the impact of high mortgage rates and insurance costs. However, it could improve transparency by explaining the methodology behind the data, such as how the median prices were calculated. Additionally, discussing potential conflicts of interest, especially in quotes from industry analysts, would enhance transparency.