IMF says uncertainty is weighing down Mideast economies

Apnews - May 1st, 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are confronting significant economic challenges due to declining oil prices, tariff measures, and reductions in financial aid. Brent crude oil prices, which have fallen from over $120 a barrel in 2022, are projected to be between $65 to $69 per barrel by 2025-2026, leaving energy-exporting economies susceptible to market volatility. Jihad Azour, IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia, highlighted that these factors, along with geopolitical tensions, could reduce regional economic growth by 2% to 4.5%. He urged MENA countries to adopt policies to safeguard their economies against these uncertainties.

The report also noted that the decrease in international aid, particularly from the United States, poses additional risks. While MENA's economic growth is expected to rise to 2.6% this year compared to 1.8% last year, global uncertainties might affect this outlook. Despite challenges, the Persian Gulf continues to attract foreign direct investment, in contrast to other MENA nations facing slower inflows. The IMF expressed its readiness to work with struggling nations, including Syria and Lebanon, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and diversified economic strategies to drive growth in the region.

Tariffs Middle East Imf Geopolitical Tensions Financial Aid North Africa Economic Growth Oil Prices Jihad Azour Persian Gulf Foreign Direct Investment

Story submitted by Fairstory

RATING

6.8

Fair Story

Consider it well-founded

The article provides a timely and relevant overview of the economic challenges facing the MENA region, drawing on authoritative sources like the IMF. It effectively highlights key issues such as tariff impacts, oil price fluctuations, and foreign aid reductions. However, the accuracy is mixed due to unverified specifics and outdated references. The article maintains a generally balanced perspective but could benefit from additional viewpoints and deeper analysis. Clarity and readability are somewhat hindered by technical language and unrelated content, though the structure and language are otherwise accessible. Overall, the article informs readers about important economic issues but has room for improvement in accuracy and depth.

Accuracy

The story's factual accuracy is mixed. It accurately presents the IMF's concerns about economic challenges in the MENA region, such as tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions. However, specific details, like the projected oil prices of $65–$69 per barrel for 2025–2026, are not directly verifiable in available IMF reports. Additionally, the reference to U.S. foreign aid cuts under President Trump is outdated, as he left office in 2021. The growth figures for the MENA region are partially supported, with the 2.6% forecast for 2025 aligning with IMF data, but the 1.8% figure for 2024 lacks direct corroboration.

Balance

The article provides a balanced view of the economic challenges facing the MENA region by citing both the potential negative impacts and the suggested policy responses. It includes perspectives from IMF officials, highlighting issues like foreign aid reductions and the need for structural reforms. However, it could benefit from additional viewpoints, such as those from local governments or independent economists, to provide a fuller picture of the regional economic landscape.

Clarity

The language and structure of the article are generally clear, with a logical flow of information from the IMF's report findings to the implications for the MENA region. However, the inclusion of unrelated content, such as the freestar advertisement script, disrupts the reading experience. The article could benefit from clearer separation of related and unrelated content to maintain focus and improve readability.

Source quality

The primary source of information in the article is the International Monetary Fund, a reputable and authoritative organization in global economic analysis. The article includes direct quotes from Jihad Azour, the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia, which adds credibility. However, the reliance on a single source could limit the depth of analysis, and incorporating additional sources could enhance the report's reliability.

Transparency

The article adequately discloses the source of its information, namely the IMF's regional outlook report and statements from Jihad Azour. However, it lacks detailed explanations of the methodologies behind the IMF's economic forecasts and the specific factors contributing to the stated economic challenges. Greater transparency regarding the basis of the oil price projections and growth impact estimates would improve the article's clarity and credibility.