The rise of retail investors in secondaries, and why delayed IPOs will become the norm

In Q4 2024, retail investors have taken a commanding presence in the secondary market, comprising 86% of the total transaction volume on platforms like EquityZen and Forge. This shift highlights a growing trend where private shares are becoming more accessible to individual investors. On TechCrunch's podcast 'Equity,' Rebecca Bellan discusses this phenomenon with Jared Carmel of Manhattan Venture Partners. Carmel refers to the surge in retail participation as a 'once-in-a-generation opportunity' for secondaries, providing a 'pressure relief valve' for startups to remain private longer, even as he voices concerns about the risks involved for retail investors.
Carmel points out the potential downside of increased retail involvement, particularly regarding 'informational asymmetry' that can disadvantage smaller investors. With a sluggish IPO market, the secondary market is experiencing a boom, acting as a liquidity flywheel for venture capitalists. This trend may significantly delay the timeline for startups going public, with Carmel predicting IPOs could be postponed by up to 20 years. The episode underscores the crucial role of secondary markets in the current financial landscape and raises questions about the balance between opportunity and risk for retail investors venturing into this space.
RATING
The story provides a timely and engaging exploration of the role of retail investors in the secondary market, highlighting both opportunities and potential risks. While it successfully captures the growing trend of retail participation and its implications for market dynamics, the reliance on a single industry insider's perspective limits its balance and source quality. The lack of direct citations or references to specific data sources affects its transparency and accuracy. Despite these limitations, the story is clearly written and structured, making it accessible to readers with a basic understanding of financial markets. To enhance its impact and public interest value, a more balanced exploration of diverse perspectives and a deeper analysis of potential downsides would be beneficial.
RATING DETAILS
The story makes several factual claims regarding retail investors' impact on the secondary market, such as the assertion that 86% of total transaction volume on platforms like EquityZen came from retail participants in Q4 2024. This specific claim lacks direct corroboration from external sources, which affects its verifiability. However, the general trend of increasing retail participation is supported by industry reports that highlight a rise in retail-focused investment vehicles. The podcast's reference to a 'once-in-a-generation opportunity' aligns with broader market analyses predicting significant growth in secondary market transactions. However, the claim that secondaries could delay IPOs by up to 20 years is not explicitly supported by the data, although the concept of secondaries acting as a liquidity solution is well-documented. Overall, while the story presents a generally accurate picture of market trends, some specific claims require further verification.
The story focuses primarily on the perspectives of industry insiders, particularly Jared Carmel of Manhattan Venture Partners, who discusses the opportunities and risks associated with increased retail investor participation in the secondary market. While this provides insight into one side of the debate, the story lacks a comprehensive exploration of opposing viewpoints or the experiences of retail investors themselves. The potential risks and downsides for retail investors, such as informational asymmetry, are mentioned but not deeply explored. This creates a somewhat unbalanced narrative that emphasizes the benefits of secondary markets without fully addressing the potential pitfalls or alternative perspectives.
The story is clearly written and structured, making it easy for readers to follow the narrative. The use of industry-specific terms, such as 'secondary market' and 'IPO,' is appropriate for the target audience, and the podcast format allows for a conversational tone that enhances engagement. The key points are presented logically, with a focus on the implications of increased retail investor participation. However, the lack of detailed explanations for some claims, such as the risks associated with informational asymmetry, may leave some readers seeking more in-depth information.
The story relies heavily on the insights of Jared Carmel, an industry insider, which provides a level of authority but also introduces potential bias. The podcast format limits the number of sources, and there is no indication of additional interviews or data sources used to corroborate the claims made. The reliance on a single expert's opinion without additional supporting evidence or perspectives from other stakeholders, such as retail investors or independent analysts, affects the overall source quality. The lack of direct attribution to specific reports or studies further limits the reliability of the information presented.
The story provides some context for the claims made, such as the mention of increased retail participation and the role of secondary markets as a 'pressure relief valve.' However, there is limited transparency regarding the methodology or data sources used to arrive at these conclusions. The absence of direct citations or references to specific reports or studies makes it difficult for readers to assess the basis of the claims. Additionally, potential conflicts of interest, such as the vested interests of the industry insiders featured, are not disclosed, which could impact the perceived impartiality of the analysis.
Sources
- https://www.torys.com/our-latest-thinking/torys-quarterly/q1-2025/secondaries-in-2025
- https://www.jefferies.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2025/02/Jefferies-Global-Secondary-Market-Review-January-2025.pdf
- https://www.adamsstreetpartners.com/insights/2025-global-investor-survey/
- https://www.williamblair.com/-/media/downloads/ib/2025/williamblair-pca-secondary-market-report-survey-march-2025.pdf
- https://www.caisgroup.com/articles/whats-behind-the-recent-growth-in-private-markets-secondaries
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